The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was 5.13 percent on 21 October 2026, according to the daily series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, compared with 4.19 percent on 2 January, a rise of 94 basis points this year, and 3.98 percent on 21 October 2025, a rise of 115 basis points over twelve months. The 2026 high was 5.31 percent on 5 October. In the past week the yield has moved within a narrow range: 5.10 percent on 15 October, 5.09 percent on 16 October, 5.15 percent on 19 October, 5.12 percent on 20 October and 5.13 percent on 21 October. The gap between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield was 0.31 percentage points on 22 October, down from 0.38 on 19 October.
The argument that yields have stabilised is based on the recent range. The yield has remained between 5.09 percent and 5.15 percent since 15 October, and it is 18 basis points below the high of 5.31 percent reached on 5 October. The yield curve, measured by the 10-year minus 2-year spread, has stayed positive at between 0.31 and 0.38 percentage points over the past week, which means that longer-term yields remain above shorter-term ones and that the curve is not inverted.
The counter-argument is that the level is very high by recent standards. The 10-year yield is 115 basis points above its level a year ago, and 94 basis points above its level at the start of 2026. A rise of this size raises borrowing costs across the economy: 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.32 percent, 1.13 points higher than a year ago. A narrowing spread, from 0.38 to 0.31 percentage points in three days, can reflect either expectations of lower short-term rates or higher short-term yields, and the data alone do not say which. The yield has also not fallen below 5 percent in the past week.
The yield matters because it is the benchmark for the cost of borrowing for the government, companies and households. Higher yields reduce the present value of future profits, which tends to affect technology and growth stocks, and they raise the cost of mortgages and corporate debt. The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on 27 and 28 October, and the Treasury market will react to its decision and its statement. The Nasdaq fell 2.6 percent on 22 October, when the latest available yield, from 21 October, was above 5 percent, though the data do not establish a link between the two.
The yield is 18 basis points below the 5.31 percent of 5 October. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.37 on 14 October, 0.33 on 15 October, 0.35 on 16 October, 0.38 on 19 October, 0.33 on 20 October, 0.32 on 21 October and 0.31 on 22 October. The 10-year yield is well above where it started the year but has settled in a narrow range this week. The Fed’s meeting is the next major test for the bond market.