Brazil’s presidential election is going to a second round. Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former president, finished ahead of President Lula in the first round on October 4, beating the polls. The two meet again on October 25.
Brazil will choose its next president in a run-off on October 25, after neither of the two leading candidates won a majority in the first round on October 4.
Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, ahead of the incumbent, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Al Jazeera reported, citing Brazil’s electoral court.
The Numbers
With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes and Lula 44.9 percent. A candidate needs more than 50 percent to win outright.
In absolute terms, Bolsonaro received about 56 million votes to Lula’s almost 53 million.
A Result the Polls Did Not Predict
A second round had been widely expected. What surprised observers was the order. Most polls had Lula finishing the first round in front; instead Bolsonaro led by about two percentage points.
Lula admitted the result was not what he had expected. “I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round,” he said. “The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people.”
Bolsonaro said the results showed that Brazilians want change.
The Candidates
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career of nearly five decades.
Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The younger Bolsonaro has pledged to seek an amnesty for his father.
Who Decides the Run-Off
Attention now turns to those who voted for one of the other 10 candidates. Two of them, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, together received about 5.3 million votes and have previously said they will not endorse either finalist.
Analysts quoted by Reuters suggested Bolsonaro may already have collected many of the “protest votes” that would otherwise have come to him only in the second round, which could limit how much further he can grow.
The Right Gains in Congress
The first round was a strong night for the right more broadly. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party was on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and made gains in the Senate.
Two other members of the family won Senate seats: former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro in the Federal District, her first elected office, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina.
The polls ahead of the vote suggested the two candidates were roughly tied in a head-to-head contest.
Image: Flávio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian Senate, 2022. Photo by Agência Senado via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.