China’s economy grew 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 4.4 percent analysts expected and up from 4.3 percent in the second quarter, official figures showed on Monday.
China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.5 percent in the July-September quarter compared with a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday, October 19, according to TBS News and InvestingLive.
The Headline Numbers
| Measure | Third quarter 2026 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth, year on year | 4.5% | Forecast 4.4%; second quarter 4.3% |
| GDP growth, quarter on quarter | 1.2% | Forecast 1.1%; second quarter 0.9% |
| First nine months, year on year | 4.6% | Government target range 4.5% to 5.0% |
What Drove the Recovery
TBS News headlined the figures as a recovery in which exports power an uneven picture. Domestic demand was weaker: the same data showed retail sales growing only 1.1 percent in September and fixed-asset investment shrinking over the first nine months, as covered in our separate report on China’s September activity data.
What Analysts Said
Yuhan Zhang of the Conference Board said: “The key macroeconomic message is that China’s economy is still supply- and production-side driven.” Tianchen Xu of the Economist Intelligence Unit said improved government investment “helped arrest the consistent worsening in fixed asset investment.”
Why It Matters
The nine-month growth of 4.6 percent puts China within the 4.5 to 5.0 percent range the government set for the year. The quarterly reading also shows the economy speeding up from the second quarter, when growth was 4.3 percent.
