Brent crude fell by about 3 percent on Monday, 2 November 2026, after reports that President Donald Trump prefers to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes. Saxo Bank put the January contract at about 110 dollars, after it traded above 114 dollars on Friday, and Fortune's price page showed Brent at 112.60 dollars a barrel at 6:30 am Eastern time, down 3.26 dollars or 2.81 percent from 115.86 dollars the previous morning. The fall followed Qatari and Iranian officials meeting for a third straight day to try to secure a deal. The price is still a long way above where it stood a year ago, and the question for traders is whether the dip is the start of a trend or only a pause.
The case for relief is that the market is pricing a lower risk of war. Saxo said the decline supported a pause in the stock selloff, after Friday's session in which the S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.5 percent, which it called Wall Street's worst session since June. Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent forecast to 105 dollars for December and to an average of 88 dollars in 2027, which implies that analysts expect prices to fall as geopolitical risks ease. OPEC+ also kept its output targets unchanged through December, which avoids a new supply shock from the producers' side. If a deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's foreign minister has suggested it could within days if the United States meets certain conditions, the risk premium in oil could shrink quickly.
The case for caution is that the level is still extreme and the supply risks have not gone away. According to Fortune, Brent was 5.39 percent higher than a month earlier, when it stood at 106.84 dollars, and 71.20 percent higher than a year earlier, when it traded at 65.77 dollars, a rise of about 47 dollars a barrel. Saxo noted that attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz highlight persistent supply risks, and Tehran has warned that renewed attacks would bring retaliation. Trump pledged no more strikes before the midterm vote but left the door open to military action afterwards. Even Goldman's lower forecast of 105 dollars for December is only about 7 dollars below Monday's price, and the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.93 percent, according to Saxo, shows that investors still fear inflation.
The move matters for every economy that imports energy. Oil at this level raises costs for airlines, manufacturers and households, adds to inflation, and limits how far central banks can cut interest rates. Importers in Asia and Europe have less room to absorb another jump, while producers benefit from the higher prices, so the direction of oil after the midterms will influence budgets and inflation forecasts around the world.
Monday's fall is welcome for consumers and governments, but it does not undo a year of increases and it could reverse as quickly as it arrived. Oil's next move will depend less on forecasts than on whether the talks in Qatar produce a deal and whether the ships in the Gulf can pass without being attacked.
