Brazil’s presidential race goes to a runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026, after neither candidate passed 50 percent in the first round on October 4, according to Covington and ITV News. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the opposition candidate, won about 56 million votes, or 47.03 percent, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won about 54 million, or 45.16 percent, in an election in which more than 125 million Brazilians voted. Lula is seeking an unprecedented fourth term. The Liberal Party also made large gains in Congress, and Brazilians will vote again to decide between the two men in a contest that the first-round numbers show to be very close.
The case that Bolsonaro is the favourite starts with the first round itself. He finished ahead of the incumbent, by 1.87 percentage points, and about two million votes, according to the figures above. His Liberal Party rose from 98 to 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and from 12 to 28 seats in the Senate, making it the largest party in both chambers, Covington reported. The party elected at least five governors, more than any other, and Bolsonaro family members won seats: the former president.s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and his son Carlos Bolsonaro were elected to the Senate, according to Covington, while his brother Renato Bolsonaro and his youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, won House seats. A candidate leading the first round with a strengthened party in Congress has momentum.
The case that the race is still open is also clear in the numbers. Lula and Bolsonaro together took 92.19 percent of the vote, which means only 7.81 percent went to other candidates, so the runoff will be decided by a very small pool of voters and by those who did not vote in the first round. The margin of 1.87 points is small for a race of this size. Lula’s Workers’ Party also elected three governors, and Republicanos elected three, so the opposition’s gains are not confined to one party. At least 20 of the 27 governorships were settled in the first round, leaving the rest to the runoff, so local contests will also influence turnout.
The runoff matters for Brazil and for the region because the country is Latin America’s largest democracy and economy, and because the result will decide whether the right gains control of both the presidency and a strengthened Congress. A Liberal Party that is the largest force in both chambers would hold considerable power if it also wins the presidency, while a Lula victory would likely mean a president facing a Congress in which the Liberal Party is the largest force. For investors and neighbouring countries, the first-round figures show that the political direction of Brazil is genuinely uncertain.
Bolsonaro leads on first-round votes and in Congress, but Lula is less than two points behind and the runoff is a new contest. The result on October 25 will depend on the few voters still undecided and on turnout. The two candidates are also due to meet in a televised debate on TV Globo on October 23, according to The Rio Times.
