Vulture’s first Oscar forecast of the season names Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” the Best Picture front-runner, but warns that only two directors in Oscar history have won Best Picture with consecutive films. Best Actor looks wide open. These are one critic’s early predictions, not results.
With the Oscar season only beginning, Vulture has published its first forecast of the biggest races. These are one critic’s early predictions, and nominations are months away.
Best Picture: ‘The Odyssey’ Out in Front
Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has been the assumed Best Picture front-runner since its July release, on the strength of its epic scale, strong reviews and record-breaking grosses, Vulture says.
The case against it is historical. Only two filmmakers have won Best Picture for consecutive features: William Wyler (Mrs. Miniver, The Best Years of Our Lives) and David Lean (The Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia). Nolan won for Oppenheimer, so Vulture notes that the Academy may feel it is somebody else’s turn.
The Challengers
- La Bola Negra (Netflix): a triptych of queer stories set around the Spanish Civil War, from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, which won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival
- Wild Horse Nine: Martin McDonagh’s film, with John Malkovich
- Project Hail Mary: from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, a springtime hit that Vulture thinks The Odyssey has overshadowed
- Dune: Part Three: considered a safe bet, though Vulture says it has not yet screened for press
- Neon’s slate: Fjord (Cristian Mungiu’s Palme d’Or winner), All of a Sudden, Artificial (Luca Guadagnino’s film about OpenAI, which Neon picked up after Amazon dropped it) and Paper Tiger
- A24’s slate: The Invite, The Debut, Club Kid and the documentary You Can See Everything, although three Best Picture nominations for one studio is rare
Best Actor: Three Names Pull Ahead
Vulture calls this the season’s most competitive acting race. Three actors have separated themselves:
- Matt Damon, The Odyssey
- John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine, who won Best Actor at the Venice festival
- Andrew Scott, Elsinore, who impressed at the Telluride festival playing the actor Ian Charleson
None has won an acting Oscar. Damon has been nominated three times, Malkovich twice and Scott never. Vulture also lists Tom Cruise (Digger), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), John Turturro, Ryan Gosling and Pedro Pascal in the mix.
Best Actress
Vulture says only one thing is sure: Julianne Moore, who was “the toast of Telluride” for The Debut and is a strong threat for a second Oscar.
Why Early Predictions Are Risky
The critic notes that early front-runners such as Oppenheimer, One Battle After Another and Anora did win. But there is always a surprise: a year ago, few expected The Secret Agent to be nominated for Best Picture.
Image: The Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, where the Oscars ceremony is held, September 2025 (file photo). Photo: Busition / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
