Israelis vote on October 27, 2026, in an election in which four recent polls show neither bloc close to the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority, The Jerusalem Post reported on October 18. The average of polls by Maariv, Channel 13, KAN and Channel 12 gives Netanyahu’s bloc 51 seats and the opposition 51.25, with Arab parties on 13.75. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads with an average of 21.5 seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud on 19 and Naftali Bennett’s party on 12.5. On October 18, President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace,” according to UPI.
The case that Netanyahu can still win is that his bloc is level with the opposition and has support from Washington. His bloc averages 51 seats against the opposition’s 51.25, a gap of a quarter of a seat, and KAN’s poll gave the Netanyahu bloc 53 seats to the opposition’s 50. Trump’s endorsement came after the president declined to back any candidate in an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, and Netanyahu replied: “Together we will complete the mission.” Netanyahu has told voters that Eisenkot would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, a message tied to the war with Iran that has disrupted Middle East oil shipments, and he has stressed his relationship with Trump as proof of American backing.
The case that the opposition has the advantage is in the party numbers and the polls from the other channels. Yashar leads Likud in the four-poll average by 2.5 seats, 21.5 to 19, and led in both Maariv and Channel 13 by two seats and in Channel 12 by three, where it won 23 seats to Likud’s 20. Channel 12 gave the opposition 54 seats to the Netanyahu bloc’s 49, a five-seat lead, and Maariv put the two blocs level on 51. Neither bloc is within ten seats of the 61 needed in the 120-seat Knesset, since the Netanyahu bloc’s 51 is ten short, which means Arab parties, with 13 to 15 seats in the polls, and smaller parties that fall between the blocs may decide who forms a government. KAN’s poll, for example, gave four seats each to a party called People of Israel and to a reservists and economic party, so several small lists could matter.
The vote matters for Israel and the wider region because the winner will lead the country through the war with Iran. A result without a clear majority could lead to weeks of coalition talks, and the Trump endorsement shows how closely Israel’s election is tied to American policy. The election takes place while the war with Iran has disrupted Middle East oil shipments, UPI noted, which gives it an international dimension.
The polls show a dead heat and no bloc near a majority, and Trump’s endorsement has not changed that arithmetic yet. The result on October 27 will turn on turnout and on the smaller parties that sit between the blocs.
