Pedro Sánchez is the only centre-left leader of a large European Union country, and polls suggest he could lose Spain’s snap election. Senior socialists in the European Parliament say that would weaken their group and could unsettle the alliance that keeps Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission in business.
A defeat for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s snap election could destabilise the European Union’s politics, according to a report by Politico published on October 6.
Why Sánchez Matters in Brussels
Sánchez is the only Socialist-aligned leader currently running a large EU country.
That has made him a centre-left counterweight in the European Council, the body of national leaders, which is largely dominated by the centre-right.
His influence extends to the European Parliament. Spain’s lawmakers form the largest national delegation in the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group. When Sánchez strikes a deal with other leaders, Spanish members can usually carry the group with him.
What the Polls Say
Polls suggest Spain will elect a government led by the centre-right People’s Party, which would probably govern with the far-right Vox.
What Socialists Fear
“There might be a temptation to look more critically at Council positions if there is no [longer] a Socialist prime minister of a large country,” said René Repasi, who leads the German SPD’s delegation in Parliament.
A second senior S&D lawmaker, speaking anonymously, said Sánchez helped to “balance” decisions among leaders.
“If what comes out of the leaders’ table, and the guidelines it gives the Commission, becomes more conservative, it will be less appealing for progressives to feel part of that governing majority,” the lawmaker said.
The Coalition at Risk
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen relies on an informal alliance of three groups to pass legislation: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the S&D and the liberals.
That alliance is already strained. Since the 2024 European election moved Parliament to the right, the EPP has passed some legislation with far-right groups. The S&D, the second-largest group, has repeatedly threatened over the past two years to withdraw its support for von der Leyen.
A Shrinking Centre-Left
Without Sánchez, the remaining centre-left leaders would be Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Malta’s Robert Abela, with Magdalena Andersson working to form a government in Sweden.
All of the S&D’s largest national delegations, from Italy, Romania and France as well as Spain, would be in opposition at home.
What to Watch
- October 21: Spain’s Iratxe García, who leads the S&D group, faces a leadership vote. She is broadly expected to keep her post.
- Spain’s vote opens a year of major elections across the EU, including in Italy, Poland and France.
Image: Pedro Sánchez at a meeting of European socialists (file photo). Photo by Arne Müseler via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.
