Several tankers have been struck near the Strait of Hormuz in the past few days, and the United States is reportedly weighing renewed military action against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections. According to CNBC, Iran says four tankers struck mines: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said three caught fire on what it called an “unauthorized southern route” near the Omani coast, and Iran’s army said a fourth burned east of the strait. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The blasts caused an engine-room fire that disabled the vessel, and the crew was safe.
The case for firm action rests on the strait’s importance and the state of shipping. CNBC reports that the strait carries about one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies, and that traffic has fallen to single-digit daily passings since the war began in late February. The Guard rejected a claim by US Central Command that American forces had cleared mines from the main transit routes, and its spokesman demanded independent evidence. The Houthis claimed six operations against airports and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi authorities said they intercepted a drone aimed at the Mecca region, although they did not confirm the other attacks. The Wall Street Journal reported that Admiral Brad Cooper briefed President Trump on attack options. Democracy Now reports that this was at least the 35th attack on a ship in the area since early October.
The case for restraint is that responsibility for the attacks is unclear and a diplomatic channel is open. The UK agency confirmed that a tanker was struck but did not say who fired, and Iran’s claims about mines have not been independently confirmed. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter through Qatari mediators to Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing a framework for talks, although Trump said he did not direct the outreach and described it as help with medical supplies. Democracy Now reports that Senator Chris Murphy called the reported plans for new strikes “insane”. A renewed campaign would also risk further disruption to a waterway where traffic has already fallen sharply. The Wall Street Journal reported that the meeting with Trump also covered the continuing US blockade.
The stakes reach well beyond the Gulf. With about a fifth of the world’s energy supplies passing through the strait, a prolonged disruption raises costs for fuel and shipping in every region, and the damage to commercial vessels can drive up insurance and slow trade. The timing, with strike plans reportedly awaiting the result of the US election, ties the war to American politics. The Houthis have also claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed.
The tanker attacks show how fragile the situation in the strait remains. Whether the next step is a new round of strikes or a negotiation will depend on decisions in Washington and Tehran in the days after the vote.
