Latvia says masked, armed men on the Belarusian side of the border threatened its soldiers and drove a group of migrants towards its territory. Analysts say pressure that used to fall on Poland and Lithuania is now being concentrated on the Baltic state least prepared for it.
Masked and armed men tried to cross into Latvia from Belarus on Monday alongside 20 undocumented migrants, Al Jazeera reported.
What Latvia Says Happened
The escorts, who were on the Belarusian side, “were armed, issued threats to … soldiers, and also actively urged and drove the migrant group toward Latvia,” said Latvia’s interior minister, Janis Dombrava. The military stopped the group.
Later, masked men did enter Latvia, where they destroyed an electrical box and stole surveillance cameras before going back. Latvian officials called it an act of sabotage orchestrated by Belarus. It is not clear whether the same men were involved in both incidents.
“Unlike many previous incidents, this time the provocation was particularly demonstrative and aggressive,” Dombrava said.
A Sharp Rise
Belarus, an ally of Russia, has used migration to put pressure on NATO’s eastern members since 2021.
“The situation in Latvia has been deteriorating since May of this year,” said Bartosz Chmielewski, a Baltics specialist at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Poland.
In September and October, he said, “the number of border violations has already reached 12,000, a level equal to the total for the entire previous year”.
Why Latvia
Latvia’s border with Belarus is 173km (107 miles) long. Lithuania’s is four times longer, yet the pressure has been concentrated on Latvia.
“This looks less like spontaneous migration than a deliberate instrument, adjusted to test the neighbour perceived as most vulnerable,” said Olevs Nikers, president of the Baltic Security Foundation.
Chmielewski said Latvia’s border infrastructure is inadequate and the resources of its border guard are dwindling, even with military support.
With a population of 1.8 million, Latvia would struggle to receive, process and provide medical care for large numbers of asylum seekers, Nikers said.
How Bad Could It Get
“A Ceuta-style surge is physically possible, and we should plan for it,” Nikers said, referring to a recent mass crossing from Morocco into Spain.
But he suggested that sustained, low-level pressure may be the more effective strategy. “It creates exhaustion, budget pressure and friction between allies.”
What Belarus May Want
Marta Jaroszewicz of the University of Warsaw linked the pressure to Latvian politics. The recent election was won by a coalition led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, which wants to keep sanctions on Belarus.
Belarus’s goal, she said, is the lifting of sanctions and the ability to ship its raw materials through Baltic ports.
Beyond Migration
Migration is only one of the tactics in use. Others, Nikers said, include disinformation, arson, the recruitment of local citizens and GPS jamming.
For comparison, almost 40,000 people tried to cross from Belarus into Poland in 2021, according to the Polish Border Guard.
Image: Border posts at the point where Latvia, Lithuania and Belarus meet (file photo). Photo by Barry432 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.