China’s exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in September to $447.18 billion, well above forecasts, with chip exports up 136%, bringing the year’s trade surplus to $938.1 billion as pressure grows on Beijing to rebalance trade.
China’s exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in September 2026 to $447.18 billion, against a forecast increase of 25.5%, according to customs data reported by Trading Economics, Quartz, the BNN Bloomberg and U.S. News. It is the strongest growth in seven months.
Demand for Chinese components used in data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure helped drive the rise. Exports of integrated circuits increased by 136% from a year earlier, according to the summary of the reports.
Imports rose 31% to $313.65 billion, the fastest increase since June and up from 28.2% in August, and above the 23.79% forecast in a Wind poll, according to the same summary.
The trade surplus was $133.53 billion in September, which is exports of $447.18 billion minus imports of $313.65 billion, according to Trading Economics. It was the second-largest monthly surplus on record, after $137.9 billion that Trading Economics dates to January 2025. For the first nine months of the year the surplus was $938.1 billion, according to U.S. News.
The annual picture is large. Last year’s full-year surplus of $1.2 trillion was a record, according to the reports, and an NBC News headline says that the September exports put a $1 trillion surplus in sight for this year. The surplus for the first nine months is already about 78% of last year’s full-year total, a calculation by Delima News from $938.1 billion and $1.2 trillion.
Pressure is rising from trading partners. Fortune’s headline says that the surplus has increased pressure on China to rebalance trade with Europe, and the Washington Times headline says that the surplus is nearing a record as pressure mounts. The articles were not reviewed in full, so the demands and the countries that made them are not described here.
The rise in exports is concentrated in technology. Chip exports rose by 136% while total exports rose by 36.3%, so integrated circuits grew almost four times as fast as the total, which is Delima News’ calculation from the two percentages. The sources reviewed do not give the value of chip exports or their share of the total, so the size of their contribution to the $447.18 billion cannot be stated.
The big rise in imports matters as well. Imports are growing almost as fast as exports, at 31% against 36.3%, which means that the surplus has not grown as sharply as the export figures suggest. The sources reviewed do not say what drove the imports.
The trade data come before China’s third-quarter growth figures. A Reuters poll headline of 15 October says that third-quarter growth is set to pick up on stimulus, keeping the 2026 target within reach. The poll’s forecast and the release date were not available in the sources reviewed, so no number or date is given.
Delima News will report the growth figures when they are released.
Image: Containers at Yangshan Port in Shanghai (file photo). Photo: Bruno Corpet (Quoique) / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
