More than 43 million Americans had voted early, either in person or by returning mail ballots, five days before Election Day, according to an Associated Press analysis reported by Al Jazeera. That is nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms. In Texas, 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, up from 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an increase of about 50%. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, already more than the 2.3 million cast during the whole early voting period in 2022. Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas are all more than 30% ahead of 2022.
The case that the numbers show an energised electorate rests on those comparisons and on the polls. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats leading Republicans 51.4% to 43.2% on the national generic ballot, a margin of 8.2 points. In an Economist/YouGov poll, 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House against 31% for Republicans, and Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball said a large generic-ballot lead makes a House flip “almost certain”. The Senate is closer. The same poll found 39% expecting a Democratic majority and 36% a Republican one, and an Emerson College poll has Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Senator Roger Marshall at 45% in Kansas. Seven key Senate races, Al Jazeera says, will likely decide whether Republicans keep their majority.
The case for caution is that early voting is not a forecast. Al Jazeera notes that early turnout figures do not show which candidates voters chose or what the final results will be. Kondik called the Senate “much more up in the air”. The Economist/YouGov numbers show that many voters expect a different outcome than the one the generic ballot suggests, since 31% expect the Republicans to keep the House. Campaigns are still pushing hard. Trump reversed a decision to cancel rallies in Kansas and Iowa, which the White House confirmed would go ahead on Sunday, while Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi and Trump campaigned in Florida, where Republicans are defending Senate and governor seats. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are focusing on Harris County, Trump plans to support Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa, and in Ohio the Democrat Amy Acton, who is running for governor, will appear with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The turnout matters because control of Congress shapes what the government can do for the next two years, from spending and investigations to the confirmation of judges and officials. A House held by the opposing party can block legislation and open inquiries, while the Senate decides on nominations. With seven Senate races in play and disputes such as the one in Alaska already in court, the count may take time.
Early voting has set a high mark, but it settles nothing. The ballots cast so far will be counted along with the rest on Tuesday, and the result will show whether the enthusiasm was real and for whom.
