Kimi Antonelli arrives at the Mexico City Grand Prix on November 1 with 365 points, 123 more than his Mercedes teammate George Russell, who has 242. With five races remaining, starting with Mexico, he can clinch the Formula One drivers’ championship this weekend with a strong result. Antonelli, who was born in August 2006, would become the youngest champion in the sport’s history, a record held by Sebastian Vettel, who was 23 years and 134 days old when he won in 2010. The Italian has won nine of the 18 races held so far, and his dominance has turned what looked like an open season into a runaway. Russell and Hamilton, who sit second and third, are separated by a single point, so the fight for the runner-up position is as tight as the fight for the title is lopsided.
The case that he deserves the title is built on wins and consistency. Antonelli’s nine victories are three times the three won by Russell, the next best, and more than four times the two each won by Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have one win apiece. A lead of 123 points is worth almost five race victories, since a win is worth 25 points, and it is far larger than any margin between the other contenders. At 20 he would be a champion who has beaten established stars such as Hamilton and Verstappen over a full season, and the points table says he has done it fairly, with half of the season’s victories to his name. He leads Hamilton by 124 points, Verstappen by 129 and Leclerc by 132. His 365 points average about 20 per race across the 18 rounds held so far.
There is a counterargument that the championship is less settled than the gap suggests, and that his rivals have been closer than his wins imply. Behind him the field is tightly bunched: Russell has 242 points, Hamilton 241, Verstappen 236 and Leclerc 233, all within nine points of each other. Half of the season’s races, nine of 18, have been won by someone else, and five different drivers have taken them. That means Antonelli’s advantage rests heavily on winning at the right moments, and a run of mechanical trouble, a penalty or a poor weekend could still cost him while five races remain. Norris is sixth with 211 points and Oscar Piastri seventh with 144, so the season has not been a one-team affair.
A title would mark a generational shift in a sport long shaped by veterans. Hamilton, third in the standings, and Verstappen, fourth, are both former champions. Mexico City is round 19 of a 23-race calendar that ends in Abu Dhabi on November 29, so even a clinched title would leave four races for Antonelli to extend his lead, and for the rest of the field to fight over the places behind him.
Antonelli has built a lead that is hard to overturn, but Formula One has seen leads shrink quickly. Mexico City offers the first chance to finish the job, and the four races that follow leave rivals very little room to catch him.
