Democrats have won control of Congress in the US midterm elections, and President Donald Trump has acknowledged that the war with Iran probably played a part. NBC News projects Democrats will hold both the House and the Senate, with ballots still being counted, and its tracker showed them flipping 43 Republican-held House seats for a net gain of 41. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff won in Georgia, a state Trump carried in 2024, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro swept aside his Republican challenger, according to the BBC. Vice-President JD Vance wrote on social media the day after the vote that "the reason we lost is the war," and Gulf states, the main targets of Iranian attacks, now see a chance to end the fighting.
The case that the war drove the result is supported by Republicans themselves. Vance named four demands from voters: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America First and change the relationship with Israel. Trump told Fox News that "a part of it was Iran," and conceded that voters were unwilling to accept the effect of the war on gas prices. Al Jazeera columnist Rami Khouri argues that Iran's restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised the prices Americans pay for fuel, groceries and imports, and notes that CBS exit polls showed voters opposed the war for both its militarism and its economic impact.
The counter-argument is that the war was one grievance among many. Khouri himself writes that it is not the war alone that explains the result, and points to anger at corruption, immigration policing and the cost of living that predated the conflict. The BBC notes that Moderate Democrats did well, with the Blue Dog Caucus gaining at least 14 seats and nearly doubling in size, and warns that a strong midterm does not guarantee a presidential win, since Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 despite heavy losses two years earlier. Trump has said he is in "no rush" to bomb Iran again, and Democrats' new members will not take their seats until early next year.
The consequences reach far beyond Washington. According to DW, the Wall Street Journal reported at the end of October that the administration had warned Gulf governments to brace for a short, intense campaign after the midterms, and two political scientists writing in Foreign Affairs observe that lame-duck presidents often turn to foreign policy. UAE adviser Anwar Gargash said at the Manama Dialogue that the Gulf is "clearly seeking a political off-ramp," while Analyst Hasan Alhasan says the 2026 war may be remembered as the moment that undid America's regional role.
Analyst Andreas Krieg argues that a lame-duck Trump will speed the Gulf states' move towards strategic autonomy, and the UAE is getting closer to Israel while Saudi Arabia has joined a defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey. The midterms have shown that the war is politically costly at home, yet they have not ended it. Whether Trump negotiates or escalates will decide if Gulf states get the off-ramp they want.
