Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 7-3 in Game 4 on October 17 and 3-1 in Game 5 on October 18 to lead the American League Championship Series 3-2, ESPN reported. The Guardians had led the series 2-1 after winning Game 3 by 3-2 on October 15, and the series was tied 2-2 after Game 4. Game 6 is scheduled in Tampa Bay on October 19, with Game 7, if needed, there on October 20. In the National League, Milwaukee have already won the NLCS 4-0, finishing the sweep of the Dodgers with a 6-4 win in Game 4 on October 15, and ESPN lists World Series Game 1 in Milwaukee on October 23.
The case that Tampa Bay are in control is made by the last two games. They outscored Cleveland 10-4 across Games 4 and 5, winning by four runs and then by two, and they now need only one win in two games to reach the World Series, with both remaining games at home according to ESPN’s schedule. Across Games 3, 4 and 5 the Rays scored 12 runs to Cleveland’s 7, even though they lost Game 3, which means their offence has produced more than the Guardians’ in the stretch that decided the series. Over the whole series the Rays have scored 18 runs to Cleveland’s 15, having won Game 2 by 3-1 after losing Game 1 by 7-3. A 3-2 lead with two home games to play is the position every team in a seven-game series wants.
The case for Cleveland is that the series has swung before and could again. The Guardians won Game 1 by 7-3 at Tampa Bay, led 2-1 after Game 3, and the series was level at 2-2 after Game 4, so Tampa Bay have only led since Game 5. Cleveland’s loss in Game 5 was by two runs, 3-1, and a team that has won two of the five games, including one by 3-2, needs just two more wins to take the series, with Game 7, if needed, decided in one night. The Guardians scored three runs in Game 4 and one in Game 5, which shows how narrow the margins in the series have been: three of the five games have been decided by two runs or fewer.
The result matters for the World Series because Milwaukee, who swept the Dodgers 4-0, are waiting with the first game at home on October 23, and their opponent will be decided by Tampa Bay or Cleveland. The Brewers outscored Los Angeles 21-11 across the four games, winning 2-1, 7-4, 6-2 and 6-4, and they will have had more than a week off before the series starts. For the region, the winner will bring a World Series to either Florida’s Gulf Coast or Ohio. ESPN lists Game 6 and, if it is needed, Game 7 at Tampa Bay on consecutive nights, so the pennant could be decided within two days.
Tampa Bay are one win from the World Series and Cleveland are two wins from it. Game 6 on Monday is the Rays’ first chance to finish it at home, and the Guardians’ first chance to stay alive.
